A mismatch between market perception and reality

A person see’s a mirage in the desert, is it real? For that person it is, until the sought after destination is not actually there. 

     If you were told by investment professionals, governments, and the media that all was good, you should invest today, would you? According to most studies, yes you would. Have you ever heard an investment firm whisper the words “correction”, “loss of funds”, “investments could lose money”? Have they ever mentioned that being out of the market would make sense? Just prior to the housing bubble in the U.S. causing the economic debacle in 2008/09.

     Ben Bernanke, Chairman of the Presidents Council of Economics stated that the inflated housing prices “largely reflect strong economic fundamentals”. In early 2000 Jim Cramer (CNBC) stated that the Nasdaq index (mainly technology) move was “very far from ending”. 

The very month after this conference comment the Nasdaq market began its sickening drop of 80%.


Perception is based on experience, biased views, and what we hear. 

Sometimes the perception may not be reality.

Consumer confidence is at a 10 year high (last time 2007).

CEO confidence highest in 6 years.


The perception amongst investors is that the market will keep going higher. Could our perception be different from reality?


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